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In an incredibly refreshing turn of events, every performance in this category is a proper supporting performance, which you’ll have gathered is increasingly important to me. And honestly, these are all supremely excellent and any would make a worthy winner, which is probably why the precursors are all over the place!

The nominees are:
-Elle Fanning, Sentimental Value
-Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, Sentimental Value
-Amy Madigan, Weapons
-Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners
-Teyana Taylor, One Battle After Another

Ugh I can already tell this is going to be a nightmare to rank but here goes.

5) Elle Fanning (as Rachel Kemp), SENTIMENTAL VALUE
Older sister Dakota may have nabbed a SAG nom for I Am Sam at the ripe young age of 8, but Elle ultimately won the Fanning sister race to the Oscar nom! Notably I believe this is the first nomination for a fully English language performance in a foreign language film, for whatever that’s worth. Elle is great here, and getting to play an actor is always fun for any actor to show off some fun acting muscles. Adding to the layers of the performance is knowing that she is also being tasked to play essentially Stellan Skarsgård’s daughter, and the anxiety that comes with getting that characterization correct.

4) Wunmi Mosaku (as Annie), SINNERS
Mosaku here turns in an incredibly layered performance as the estranged wife of one of the Michael B. Jordan-played twins and Hoodoo practitioner. Her role could almost be analogized in horror tropes to that of the harbinger, warning Smoke that something doesn’t quite feel right about this endeavor of his but that she is along for the ride anyway. Mosaku plays this so subtly and quietly as to never needing a big Capital S Scene, and even when she’s silently in the background she draws a strong presence. Something tickled me about her line reading of “She’s family” when the white vampires ask why Hailee Steinfeld is invited to the cookout.

3) Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas (as Agnes Borg Pettersen), SENTIMENTAL VALUE
When you’re the member of an ensemble with the least amount of name recognition, it’s always going to be a potential uphill battle to the nomination, and when you get the nomination, a battle against the perception that you only got in because of coattails. I would contend that that is absolutely not the case for Lilleaas here, as the performance she gives was so quietly captivating as to have probably been my favorite of this film’s four nominees. She does so much with her face throughout the film, reacting the emotional whims of Renate, the existential crisis of Stellan, and doing the whole “yes I can be austerely polite” thing to Elle effortlessly, and I contend that she was in a stronger place to get nominated over Elle or even Renate. Given the chaos of this category, I would not be surprised if this won out of nowhere.

2) Teyana Taylor (as Perfidia Beverly Hills), ONE BATTLE AFTER ANOTHER
First of all, has there ever been a better nominated character name than Perfidia Beverly Hills? Teyana Taylor lives up to the coolness of that name with a performance that’s so up and down cool that her performance still lingers even after she largely exits the film about 30 minutes in with over two hours left. That’s the kind of supporting performance, one whose impact with the small amount of screentime is felt permeating throughout the film, that is worthy of a win and may potentially still pull her over the finish line.

1) Amy Madigan (as Aunt Gladys), WEAPONS
But if we’re talking about how a performance’s impact is felt throughout the bones of a film, then I don’t think we can get any better than Amy Madigan and her now iconic performance as the villainous Aunt Gladys. Clocking in at just 14 minutes total and not speaking a line until an hour into the movie, the glimpses we catch of her menacing sleep terror-inducing face foreshadow what we know is going to be a uniquely unnerving performance. What’s more, even when she is out of the of garish makeup and red wig, she somehow becomes even more terrifying as her grip on our young protagonist Alex and those around him is more pronounced, and the stakes are set up for a thrilling and satisfying finale

• WILL WIN: Amy Madigan, Weapons…with a SAG win on her side, the momentum is hers for the taking
• COULD WIN: honestly, any of these, but Wunmi Mosaku, Sinners, has the British support with the BAFTA win, alongside with being in a potential contender for the Best Picture win
• SHOULD HAVE BEEN HERE: Sorry I’m gonna be predictable and say Ariana Grande for Wicked: For Good. While Part 1 showed her having fun with her inner theater kid, For Good demonstrated that she had the dramatic chops to deliver a performance that underscored the dramatic stakes of the movie. I get particular chills during “Thank Goodness” when she sings “there are bridges you cross you didn’t know you crossed until you’ve crossed.”